Today's picks

Market price implies 44% cover; the model says 60% — High disagreement (+16.6pp).

Raw model estimate before the market check: +33.9% per unit. This is an estimate, not a win chance.

Model's break-even price: 1.49

Early-season team data is still thin, so keep the stake small.

90-minute result: 1. FC Union Berlin 60% · Draw 20% · FC Schalke 04 19%.

Exact handicap outcomes: win 60%, half-win 0%, refund 0%, half-loss 20%, loss 19%.

Saved before kickoff: yes · final-price check: ready.

Market price implies 46% cover; the model says 49% — Market-agreed (+2.9pp).

Raw model estimate before the market check: +5.4% per unit. This is an estimate, not a win chance.

Model's break-even price: 1.75

Early-season team data is still thin, so keep the stake small.

90-minute result: Venezia 35% · Draw 28% · Fiorentina 37%.

Exact handicap outcomes: win 35%, half-win 28%, refund 0%, half-loss 0%, loss 37%.

Saved before kickoff: yes · final-price check: ready.

Market price implies 55% cover; the model says 56% — Market-agreed (+1.6pp).

Raw model estimate before the market check: +3.0% per unit. This is an estimate, not a win chance.

Model's break-even price: 1.78

Early-season team data is still thin, so keep the stake small.

90-minute result: Sevilla FC 44% · Draw 25% · Valencia CF 31%.

Exact handicap outcomes: win 56%, half-win 0%, refund 0%, half-loss 0%, loss 44%.

Saved before kickoff: yes · final-price check: ready.