36 settled
13 won · 7 half-won · 0 refunded · 1 half-lost · 15 lost
Profit/loss: +0.21 units
FATE · honest record
Does this make money?
Too early to know. The new ladder has 114 settled picks and 53 actionable picks with a saved price. We need about 200 before treating the result as meaningful.
New daily ladder
17 settled
6 won · 4 half-won · 1 refunded · 1 half-lost · 5 lost
Profit/loss: +1.555 units
Combined profit/loss for actionable ranks: +1.765 units. This number is not meaningful until the sample is much larger.
Why the old record cannot prove profit
42 older World Cup watches settled, but only 1 had a verified price. A result without its original price cannot be turned into honest profit or loss.
That is why the new ladder saves rank, handicap, minimum price, model estimate and result from day one.
Two useful old checks
Prediction accuracy
The older match-winner model scored about 65% in its historical test. That is not the same as handicap profit.
Price movement
The market often moved against the older picks. In plain words: FATE was usually slower than the market. The new record keeps this separate instead of hiding it inside a score.