{"ok":true,"runtime_version":"FATE_MODEL_INTELLIGENCE_CANONICAL_20260703","runtime_marker":"FATE_MODEL_INTELLIGENCE_CANONICAL_20260703","api_version":"FATE_MODEL_INTELLIGENCE_CANONICAL_20260703","previous_runtime_version":"FATE_JSON_KNOCKOUT_CANONICAL_20260702","json_source":"knockout_canonical_builder","canonical_json_endpoint":"/fate/world-cup/predictions-live","legacy_json_endpoint":"/fate/world-cup/predictions","legacy_predictions_status":"legacy_stale_risk","lane":"world_cup_free_public","world_cup_free_public_mode":true,"model_only_no_market":true,"odds_missing":true,"count":104,"total_fixtures":104,"fixtures_total":104,"completed_count":104,"completed_no_pick_count":0,"pending_count":0,"upcoming_count":0,"live_count":0,"awaiting_result_count":0,"group_stage_completed_count":72,"knockout_total_count":32,"knockout_completed_count":32,"knockout_pending_count":0,"unresolved_bracket_slots":0,"knockout_loaded":true,"stage_scope":"world_cup_full_or_knockout_continuation","last_refreshed_sgt":"2026-07-28 20:55 SGT","next_refresh_sgt":"2026-07-29 06:40 SGT","fixture_source":"FATE WC2026 scan + ESPN public FIFA World Cup knockout scoreboard fixtures","result_source":"martj42/international_results (CC0, verified) + ESPN public FIFA World Cup scoreboard API","auto_publish_disabled":true,"max_publish":0,"publish_gate_required":true,"public_paid_picks_count":0,"safety_locks":{"auto_publish_disabled":true,"max_publish":0,"publish_gate_required":true,"public_paid_picks_count":0},"board":{"total_fixtures":104,"completed":104,"graded":104,"completed_no_pick":0,"pending_forecasted":0,"pending_count":0,"completed_count":104,"upcoming_count":0,"live_count":0,"awaiting_result_count":0,"void_or_postponed_count":0,"group_stage_completed_count":72,"knockout_total_count":32,"knockout_completed_count":32,"knockout_pending_count":0,"awaiting_model":0,"tbd_awaiting":0,"unresolved_bracket_slots":0,"knockout_loaded":true,"stage_scope":"world_cup_full_or_knockout_continuation","counts_note":"104 tracked = 104 completed + 0 upcoming + 0 live + 0 awaiting result + 0 unresolved bracket slots + 0 awaiting model"},"metrics":{"graded":104,"completed":104,"completed_no_pick":0,"pending":0,"total":104,"accuracy":0.6538,"record_hit_miss":"68-36","mean_brier_3class":0.5188,"random_brier_baseline":0.667,"reliability_by_bucket":[{"bucket":"0.3-0.4","n":20,"claimed_midpoint":0.35,"realized_hit_rate":0.55},{"bucket":"0.4-0.5","n":19,"claimed_midpoint":0.45,"realized_hit_rate":0.4737},{"bucket":"0.5-0.6","n":13,"claimed_midpoint":0.55,"realized_hit_rate":0.7692},{"bucket":"0.6-0.7","n":14,"claimed_midpoint":0.65,"realized_hit_rate":0.7857},{"bucket":"0.7-0.8","n":22,"claimed_midpoint":0.75,"realized_hit_rate":0.7273},{"bucket":"0.8+","n":16,"claimed_midpoint":0.85,"realized_hit_rate":0.6875}],"reliability_note":"Claimed pick probability vs realized hit rate on graded WC2026 matches. Buckets realizing well below their claim indicate overconfidence; treat wide handicap watches with caution there.","calibration_only":false,"no_betting_edge":true,"source":"martj42/international_results (CC0, verified)"},"automation":{"status":"on","label":"Results / grading refresh (daily full + recalibration)","schedule":"Daily 06:40 SGT","task_exists":true,"task_state":"Ready","last_run_result":0,"last_run_time_sgt":"2026-07-28 06:40 SGT","next_run_time_sgt":"2026-07-29 06:40 SGT","data_age_minutes":2,"data_fresh":true,"last_run_status":"result_poll_refreshed","health_note":"Task healthy and data fresh.","last_refreshed_sgt":"2026-07-28 20:55 SGT","result_grading_poller":{"status":"on","schedule":"Every 10 minutes","task_state":"Ready","last_run_result":0,"last_run_time_sgt":"2026-07-28 20:55 SGT","next_run_time_sgt":"2026-07-28 21:05 SGT","source_disagreement_guard":"active","sla_status":"ok","sla_note":"All started matches resolved within SLA."}},"snapshot_automation":{"status":"on","task":"prediction_snapshot_refresh","schedule":"Every 15 minutes","last_run_sgt":"2026-07-21 11:35 SGT","last_run_status":"refreshed","next_run_sgt":"2026-07-21 11:50 SGT","snapshot_types":["initial","24h","12h","6h","1h","final"],"total_snapshots":624,"pending_known_forecasts":0,"known_forecasts":104,"late_backfilled_count":397,"awaiting_real_kickoff_datetime":0,"note":"Initial snapshots are created immediately for known fixtures. 24h/12h/6h/1h/final snapshots are computed from UTC kickoff datetimes. Snapshots created after their intended window are labelled as late backfills; after-kickoff backfills are not pre-kickoff receipts.","task_exists":true,"task_state":"Ready","last_run_result":0,"last_run_time_sgt":"2026-07-28 20:57 SGT","next_run_time_sgt":"2026-07-28 21:12 SGT","health_note":"Task healthy and data fresh."},"next_forecast":null,"upcoming_forecasts":[],"ah_performance":{"generated_from":"graded rows + append-only market timeline","live_ah":{"scope":"live_world_cup_ah_watches","label":"Live World Cup AH watches (pre-kickoff receipts only)","settled":42,"counts":{"hit":25,"half_win":2,"push":4,"half_loss":0,"miss":11},"hit_rate_pct":71.1,"priced_count":1,"unpriced_count":41,"flat_stake":100,"total_staked":100,"total_pnl":0.0,"pnl_per_100":0.0,"priced_watches":[{"match":"Australia vs Egypt","watch":"Australia +0","grade":"push","hk":1.429,"pnl_per_100":0.0}],"money_note":"Dollars are computed ONLY over watches with a verified captured pre-kickoff market price for the exact side and line; the rest are counted in the record but never priced.","graduation_rule":"This record graduates to public BET wording only when ALL hold: live pre-kickoff published watches; at least 50 settled with verified captured prices; positive profit per $100 over that sample; no retroactive selection; verified closes. Until then every slip stays REVIEW ONLY.","verdict":"REVIEW ONLY"},"lean_1x2":{"scope":"world_cup_1x2_lean","label":"World Cup 90-minute winner lean (secondary, counts only)","won":68,"lost":36,"graded":104,"hit_rate_pct":65.4,"money_note":"No verified price ledger for 1X2 leans — no dollars computed."},"archive":[{"scope":"premier_league_backtest","label":"Premier League walk-forward backtest (ARCHIVE — not live picks)","matches":1215,"accuracy_pct":66,"brier":0.223,"balanced_odds_subset":{"bets":207,"pnl_per_100":0.71,"note":"Simulated flat-stake subset at balanced-odds lines from the walk-forward audit. Closing-line value was NEGATIVE across every tested variant — this is calibration evidence, NOT proven edge and NOT a forward promise."},"source":"backtest_simulation","provenance":"tournament archive dc_xg50 (walk-forward champion): n=1215, n_bets=207 — same frozen figures the public /yesno receipt grid has shown since sprint 20260428_120729; posture frozen by the value-audit (reference-only, CLV negative)."}],"separation_note":"Live pre-kickoff watches and archive/backtest results are separate ledgers and are never combined into one headline number.","public_bet_wording_allowed":false,"verdict":"REVIEW ONLY"},"awaiting_results":[],"bracket_slots":[],"completed_history_count":104,"predictions_count":104,"disclaimer":"FATE World Cup 2026 free forecasts, graded against verified match results and updated daily. Market comparison / reference only — FATE watch, not betting advice, and not an order to enter. No bookmaker odds, no EV, ROI, CLV, profit, or betting edge is claimed. Market alignment means low conflict, not value. AH/fair-line output is model-implied unless a real market source is present.","product_posture":"market_comparison_reference_only","compact_feed":true,"compact_feed_note":"Canonical live crawler-safe summary built from the full knockout prediction builder."}